Daily Blog • November 13th

 

NFL SELECTIONS 9-2 LAST WEEK!!!
31-15 L/4 WEEKS (67%) AND 64-46 (58%) ON THE YEAR!

HERE ARE MY NFL SELECTIONS
HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
HOU 116
283
29
1.4
#23
JAX 128
245
28
1.7
#10

Both teams pass defense are atrocious. HOU pass def is in the bottom 5 since the NFL/AFL merger in 1970. The Jaguars def took huge hit on Thursday when prized FA DE Kampann landed on IR with an ACL tear to his other knee. Garrard is 4-1 against the Texans but Del Rio is 2-6 coming out of a bye. HOU will look to run here as TE Daniels who is the secondary target in the Texans passing game is expected to miss with a hamstring injury. Both teams have elite RB’s (Foster leads the NFL at the halfway pt in rush). Neither team is especially attractive but the late week injury puts 2008 1st Rd bust DE Harvey back into starting position and Schaub should have plenty of time here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: HOUSTON 27 JACKSONVILLE 24

 

MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
MIN 96
220
18
2.4
#18
CHI 71
213
19
2.5
#5

MIN posted 14 pts in the final 3:35 to send the game to OT for the win. They did give up 2 TD’s on a KR & fumble return but they outgained ARZ 507-225 as they gave up just 3 FD’s on 9 ARZ’s 11 drives. Off their bye, CHI struggled to put away a beat up BUF team needing a Fitzpatrick Int to set up a short drive inthe 4Q for the win. MIN’s defense got a much needed confidence boost with 6 sacks & 8 tfl’s & now get a CHI OL that has given up 1 sack every 7.5 pass att’s with Cutler. While MIN WR Harvin is not 100% he should play here and he is not the type of player that needs to practice all week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MINNESOTA 28 CHICAGO 17

 

NY JETS AT CLEVELAND
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
NYJ 138
220
17
1.9
#7
CLE 128
193
18
2.3
#4

After defeating his former mentor Belichick LW, Mangini & several former players take on their former team in the Jets. CLE is outplaying its stats & the coaching staff has done an excellent job of being aggressive with McCoy (68% 7.8 ypa).The Jets were able to rally for the win vs DET LW due to a coaching blunder by Schwartz. Sanchez has gone 6 games with less than 60% comp & has a 2-5 ratio the L3W. The Jets are the better team on paper but my computer calls for CLE to pull another upset (only -37 yds) and I think they will be very competitive again.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY JETS 21 CLEVELAND 20

 

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
KC 205
165
26
0.4
#11
DEN 87
280
19
1.8
#22

DEN finds itself in a great situation off a bye week vs a KC team off B2B OT games & travelling to a Div foe for the 2nd straight week. KC dominated the 1H vs OAK allowing 2 FD’s & 49 yds. OAK seized the momentum in the 2H with a 94 yd KR & followed it up by forcing a fumble on KC’s ensuing KR. KC was outgained 272-135 the rest of the way. DEN will be more focused & Orton should have a healthy set of RB’s for the 1st time TY. However KC is relatively healthy as well and I think they have the coaching edge in this one and get the key conf rd win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 17 DENVER 14

 

SEATTLE AT ARIZONA
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
SEA 93
223
20
2.4
#3
ARZ 110
230
26
2.5
#6

SEA is not the same team that beat ARZ 22-10 in the 1st meeting. SEA was without 7 starters from opening day LW & were forced to start SD’s old 3rd string QB Whitehurst (113 yds 52% 1-2) vs the Giants. It was over at the half as SEA was down 35-0 with Coughlin letting up in the 2H. ARZ is off a misleading final vs MIN as they got 14 pts on a KR & fumble return for TD’s. They gave up 14 pts in the final 3 min of the game & went on to lose in OT (-282 yds). While both teams are statistical bottom feeders ARZ is getting healthier and playing at home.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ARIZONA 23 SEATTLE 13

 

 
CINCINNATI AT INDIANAPOLIS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CIN 108
213
18
1.7
#31
IND 89
283
29
1.5
#30

Manning off a SU loss vs a Bengals team that has not been able to pressure the QB (1 sack every 40 pass att) DC Zimmer has called out his LBs for poor play in the Steelers gm. They also lost RT Smith who had done well in his 3 str sts but his gone to another foot inj. Palmer has missed 2 days worth of pract (shoulder) but is expected to start here. Palmer is playing at the same level as Bills QB Fitzpatrick and now has to travel vs a Colts team that knows it has to play well to keep up with Titans.
PHIL’S FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 27 CINCINNATI 17

TENNESSEE AT MIAMI
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
TEN 107
205
24
0.7
#13
MIA 138
265
23
2.5
#29

The Titans are off their bye week & basically swapped out Moss for Britt to keep the vertical threat & take a safety away from RB Johnson. MIAs defense has been playing better than their ranking the L4W but the offense’s inability to put TD’s on the board has hurt them. MIA hasn’t scored more than 2 off TD’s in a game TY & just 3 the L3W. The Dolphins benched QB Henne TW and Pennington will get the start here. MIA’s 4 victories TY have been by a combined 19 pts (all on the road) & TEN has shown they can play physically (NYG) or in shootouts (DAL) & I'll go with the road team here.

PHIL’S FORECAST: TENNESSEEE 21 MIAMI 13

DETROIT AT BUFFALO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DET 135
200
30
2.0
#2
BUF 114
230
23
2.4
#17

Stafford has missed 11 of 24 games due to injuries & he reinjured his right shoulder LW vs the Jets and will be OFY again. The Lions must not think too highly of QB Stanton as they will start Hill with a cast on his left arm. We now have a dome team that hasn’t been on the road in 3 Wks travelling to a winless, desperate BUF team that has lost 3 straight games by a FG. BUF outgained CHI by 63 yds LW & while it doesn’t sound like much their +9 yds the L4W is 12th in the NFL. My computer calls for the Lions to win but I disagree and the Bills will get their first win of the season.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BUFFALO 20 DETROIT 17

CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
CAR 131
158
15
3.0
#12
TB 150
215
27
2.3
#15

An already struggling CAR offense went thru all 3 QB’s , saw 2 RB’s leave the field due to injuries & their top WR had 1 rec for 9 yds. They will be starting their 4th string RB and they may also be without MLB Dan Connor (hip) as well & that could be the crack that splinters a young & thin defense that has overachieved TY despite the record. I do want to state that ownership is to blame for the Panthers struggles TY not HC Fox. TB should get a DD win here with the Panthers beat up supporting cast.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 17 CAROLINA 7

ST LOUIS AT SAN FRANCISCO
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
STL 69
203
13
2.0
#26
SF 93
230
19
1.0
#21

Both teams are off bye weeks & there is a very real chance that 7-9 will win the NFC West TY. Troy Smith will get the start again for SF after his athleticism offset the OL’s problems & helped secure the win vs DEN. STL has used a short passing game the L4W (5.3 ypa #30) & outstanding defense (281 total ypg 5.5 ypa allowed 7th) to control games & keep Bradford out of trouble. However this will be the first game where Bradford faced a foe with an entire bye week to prep for him and SF's receiving corp is far superior to STL.
PHIL’S FORECAST: SAN FRAN 21  ST  LOUIS 9

DALLAS AT NY GIANTS
Rushing
Passing
Points
TO’s
ST
DAL 50
143
14
2.4
#19
NYG 158
278
39
2.3
#28

DAL is off to their worst start since 1989 when they started off 0-8 and fired HC Phillips earlier TW. OC Garrett takes over and they have been held to 50 yds or less rushing 3 Wks & are 29th in the NFL over the L4W being outgained by 75 ypg. Opposing QB’s have completed 75% of their passes for a 12-3 ratio & an NFL high 8.23 ypa over the L4W. The Giants destroyed a depleted SEA team 41-7 & it could have been much worse if Coughlin didn’t exercise good sportsmanship at the end. While this game will be closer, the Giants should have no problem as they prepare for the SNF road gm vs PHI on deck.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NY GIANTS 30 DALLAS 23